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What's Next For Commodities?

By Nico Isaac
Fri, 14 Nov 2008 14:45:00 ET
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Thanksgiving is weeks away, but the time to be grateful is right now. The brand-new November Monthly Futures Junctures is complete, and it's safe to say: This publication's horn of plenty is filled to the brim with opportunities in the world's leading commodity markets.
The Centerpiece: In a special, expanded “Monthly Feature” segment, Futures Junctures editor Jeffrey Kennedy answers the most burning question to date: “Is the bear market in commodities over, or has it just begun?” Jeffrey reveals where the strongest case lies – with bulls or bears – with 7 pages AND 7 eye-opening charts of every market, from silver to soybeans.
Served up next, on pp. 8-13, is MFJ’s “Wave Watch.” Here, Jeffrey provides two labeled snapshots per 12 markets – each of which include clearly marked trendlines, up/downside objectives, support/resistance levels, and bold arrows pointing prices in their next likely direction. Off the top are these familiar favorites:
Coffee & Sugar: The July 2008 MFJ saw the bullish caffeine buzz wearing off and wrote: “The larger trend in coffee is down. Expect a sell off to below the May low.” On its heels, the September 2008 MFJ told a “sour” sugar story and wrote: “The pattern argues for a sizable selloff in price.” From their respective peaks, both markets suffered sharp declines into late October: To a 17-month low in coffee and 10-month low in sugar.
Then, the October ’08 MFJ “Wave Watch” showed a fourth wave rebound in store for both markets – DESPITE the “grim economic outlook” looming above. Coffee soon rallied to a three-week high, and sugar, to a five-week high.Enough said.
Cocoa & The U.S. Dollar: According to the usual experts, one main factor is keeping cocoa down near 11-month lows: Gains in the greenback. “The stronger dollar weighed on prices of soft commodities.” (AP) One problem: Cocoa prices peaked in late June, while the dollar didn’t convincingly break out to the upside until late August. The new MFJ sets the record straight.
(A Feast Of Opportunity In Commodities: The November 2008 Monthly Futures Junctures is hot off the virtual press and presents the most comprehensive and objective coverage of the long-term trend changes in store for the world's leading markets. Act Now – read it risk-free.)
Cornucopia: Before crude oil reversed from its July 11 peak; before the CRB index turned down from its July 3 peak; before the “economic turmoil” reshaped the U.S. financial sector in September – the January 2008 Monthly Futures Junctures laid out a long-term picture of corn and wrote: “The advance will continue to ultimately beyond the July 1996 peak (554) onto a much higher level, closer to 725-750. [Then], we expect the move to be completely retraced once complete.”
From there, prices rocketed to an all-time high in June, followed by a violent sell-off that completely erased the year’s entire 40%-plus rally. We rest our case.
Live Cattle: Speaking of corn: What happened to the widely popular notion that soaring corn prices – the leading ingredient in livestock feed – were slaughtering the live cattle market? Higher feed costs = lower demand, so the story went. Yet – right now, corn prices stand at a one-year low, right alongside a new contract low in live cattle. The new MFJ offers grade A analysis.
Believe it or not, we’ve only just begun to tap the surface of the new, November Monthly Futures Junctures. The thermometer of opportunity has popped. Feast on the most original and objective insights before they go cold.

Subscribe risk-free to Futures Junctures Service today – for instant online access.

Tags: Commodities, Silver, soybeans, coffee, sugar, u.s. dollar, cocoa, CRB

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